Total Vehicle Sales Regression Problem Worksheet
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The monthly data set attached, “VSALES23”, is for total vehicle sales in the U.S. for the
period of 2000.1 and 2019.06. Also, the data for unemployment rate (UE), consumer sentiment (CS),
and interest rate (TB) are included in the data set for the same period. By using E-Views/R program,
perform the following tasks.
A. Using the 2000.1 – 2019.06 sample, estimate a regression model for VSALES by using CSENT,
TB10Y and UNEMP as independent variables. Copy and paste the estimation output and report
the estimated coefficients as below.
Vsalest = ______ + ______ UE + ______ CSt + ______ TB
Do the coefficients above show the expected signs? Are the coefficients in the model significant
at the 5% level? Explain.
B. Using the Holt-Winter’s Smoothing method (multiplicative) available in the EViews/R program,
forecast CS, UE and TB values for the 2019.07 – 2019.12 period. Report the forecast values for
the variables in a table.
C. Using the forecasted values in C and the estimated regression equation in B, “calculate” the
forecast values of VSALES for the 2019.07 – 2019.12 period. Show your work.
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