Develop a Decision Model

Assignments

All written assignments are to be submitted in a file format that can be read and edited using Microsoft ® Word

• Page Margins: 1” on all sides (top, bottom, left, right)
• Font: 12-pt Times New Roman
• Single-spaced throughout
• Written assignments are to be submitted to Canvas by midnight (of due date). The grade earned on each assignment will be reduced by five percent for each day past the deadline.

Grading Rubric (What will be used to determine your paper grade):

• Clarity: Understandable: the meaning can be grasped.
• Accuracy: Free from errors or distortions.
• Precision: Exact to the necessary level of detail.
• Relevance: Relating to the matter at hand.
• Depth: Containing complexities and multiple interrelationships. Breadth: Encompassing multiple viewpoints.
• Logic: The parts make sense together; no contradictions. Significance: Focusing on the important: Not trivial.
• Fairness: Justifiable: not self-serving or one-sided.

Paper One Outline

Prepare a summary report (five to seven pages) of your approach to an intelligence-based decision-making program that can be used to evaluate information and make decisions under uncertain conditions.

Step One: Define your objective or decision topic: Consider an objective or pending decision within your line of work or interest. Your objective(s) must me clear, forward looking, and have potentially significant impact on your organization. Large-scale events, product decisions, competitive choices are just a few uncertain scenarios you will be faced with and a process to evaluate evidence and possible decision choices could help you determine the best path forward.

Step Two: Define your intelligence process: Your intelligence process should be well defined and explain the role of assessor, risk manager, and risk communicator. Once roles are defined your process should then clearly define what sources of evidence will enter your process, how it will be evaluated, and ranked.

Step Three: Determine associated risk with evidence-based choices: Once evidence is gathered, your process will then identify and rank choices which associated risk factors and other significant considerations.

Step Four: Define your communication process: Determine how and when evidence, risk, and pending choices will be communicated and what key points will be discussed to determine which decision is best. Your communication plan should include what written material will accompany and oral presentations to decision makers and stakeholders

Step Five: How are questions and new information introduced to your decision-making program: Questions about presented choices and the need to re-evaluate or add new information into your decision-making process is critical in making sound decisions. Describe how this new information is added to your decision process, how this information and previous evidence is re-evaluated, rank, and included or discarded based on additional considerations.

Step Six: How is the proper choice made: Describe once all evidence is evaluated how the decision is made and what evidence attributes made this choice the best given what the decision makers knew at that time.

Step Seven: How are choices evaluated post-event: Define how a review of choices is performed and how any improvements or learned best practices is incorporated into decision making process.

The paper will be graded as follows:

• Identification and comment of fundamentals: 40%
• Insight and Analysis of the content: 40%
• Technical proficiency and writing: 20%